Russian President Vladimir Putin is pursuing a new strategy to destabilize the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
A report published by the U.S.-based think tank on Tuesday suggests that Putin's recent rhetoric concerning the Baltic states—Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia—is intended "to set information conditions" for "future escalations" that could weaken NATO. All three of the Baltic countries are members of NATO and the European Union.
Putin has repeatedly railed against the expansion of NATO as a threat to Russia, citing his concerns as a factor in Russia's decision to invade Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Regardless, the alliance has expanded during the Ukraine war. Baltic neighbor Finland joined last year, while Sweden is in the process of becoming a member.
Latvia's recent tightening of immigration laws for Russian citizens prompted Putin to slam the country and other Baltic states earlier this week for jeopardizing the "security" of Russia. The Latvian government announced last month that it was deporting around 1,200 Russian citizens who did not apply for a new residence permit.
"The events that are taking place in Latvia and other Baltic countries now, when the Russian people are being thrown out, are very serious and directly affect the security of our country," Putin said in Moscow on Tuesday, according to Russian state news agency TASS.
ISW's report claims that Putin's remarks were intended to promote "a longstanding Kremlin effort to set information conditions for future escalations against the Baltic countries, likely as part of his wider effort to weaken NATO." The think tank said that Putin "trivialized the sovereignty" of the Baltic countries and other former Soviet nations.
"Putin has long employed an expansive definition of Russia's sovereignty and trivialized the sovereignty of former Soviet republics, and Russia has long claimed that it has the right to protect its 'compatriots abroad,' including ethnic Russians and Russian speakers beyond Russia's borders," the report stated.
"ISW has not observed any indication that a Russian attack against the Baltics is imminent or likely, but Putin may be setting information conditions for future aggressive Russian actions abroad under the pretext of protecting its 'compatriots," the assessment continued.
Newsweek reached out for comment to Putin's office via email on Wednesday for comment.
ISW noted that Putin had "threatened" Finland in mid-December, likely a reference to the Russian president saying during a state television interview that Finland had been "dragged" into NATO by Western allies and warning that "problems" would follow as a result.
The think tank went on to say that Putin "still pursues" an effort "to weaken and ultimately destroy NATO," with the Kremlin promoting "information operations" and "hybrid warfare tactics" meant to destabilize the alliance and set conditions for "future aggressive Russian actions against NATO countries and their neighbors."
Earlier this week, Putin ally Sergey Mironov—leader of the party "A Just Russia," which is part of the systemic opposition sympathetic to Kremlin foreign policy—threatened to launch a nuclear war if the West makes any hostile moves towards Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave situated on the Baltic Sea between NATO members Lithuania and Poland.
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