Topline
The Democratic party plans to focus its 2024 messaging on attacking Republicans who have supported former President Donald Trump’s unfounded claims of election fraud, according to a memo shared Wednesday—as President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign also announced he will cast Trump as a threat to democracy in a major campaign speech Saturday.
Key Facts
Predicting election denialism will cost Republicans in the 2024 election, the memo highlights GOP losses in the 2022 midterm, including four Trump-endorsed failed Senate candidates who spread his false claims that the election was stolen, races that cost the GOP the Senate majority.
The DNC led the memo, first reported by NBC, by calling out House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) for his role in helping Trump contest the results of the 2020 presidential election, when Johnson helped devise a debunked legal theory that suggested results in some states were invalid because they had changed their voting rules to accommodate for pandemic-era restrictions.
Johnson, the memo warned, will leverage Republicans’ power in the House to “advance Donald Trump’s political ambitions in 2024” with the help of Trump allies in Congress, including Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and newly minted Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good (R-Va.).
Calling election denialism “the defining litmus test for the GOP presidential field,” the memo also rebukes Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley for campaigning on behalf of GOP midterm candidates who denied the results of the 2020 presidential election and DeSantis for refusing to say Jan. 6 was an insurrection.
What To Watch For
Biden will deliver a speech Saturday to mark the third anniversary of Jan. 6 from Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, where the Continental Army re-emerged from its winter encampment as a well-organized force equipped to challenge the British Army. Biden will draw parallels between the significance of the site and the 2024 election to the fate of American democracy and remind voters of Trump’s efforts to contest the 2020 election results, his campaign said. The speech is one of Biden’s most significant re-election campaign events to date and comes less than two weeks before the primaries kick off on Jan. 15 with the Iowa caucuses. Biden will travel to South Carolina Monday to deliver a speech at the Emanuel AME Church in Charleston, the historic Black church where nine worshippers were killed by a white supremacist in a 2015 mass shooting.
Key Background
While Trump has continued to wield outsize power over the Republican party since losing the 2020 election, there are some signs Trump has negatively impacted the party as his preferred candidates have lost a series of high-stakes congressional races in recent years. The losses cost Republicans the Senate and a wider majority in the House in the 2022 midterms. Trump is expected to secure the GOP nomination and face Biden in the general election, and while polls show most Americans don’t want to see either on the ballot in November, an increasing number of surveys show that Americans trust Trump more than Biden to manage both the economy and the Israel-Hamas war, two major issues for voters in 2024. The expected rematch is likely to be a close race, with Trump polling 2 points ahead of Biden, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling average, though it’s unclear how the outcome of Trump’s various criminal cases could impact his chances at winning the election.
Tangent
Trump faces a total of 91 criminal charges across his four indictments linked to his involvement in efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, his handling of classified documents after leaving office and his Manhattan Criminal Court case accusing him of orchestrating unlawful hush money payments. It’s unclear how a conviction in any of the cases could sway voters or whether the cases will even reach a trial before November. Some surveys show the majority of voters, 58%, according to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll, believe Trump committed serious federal crimes, 62% of Republicans also believe he should remain the party’s nominee, if he wins the primary and is subsequently convicted of a crime.
What We Don’t Know
Whether Democrats’ plans to cast Republicans as a threat to democracy will sway voters. The economy is consistently ranked as the top issue for voters, with 75% of survey respondents in a December Associated Press/NORC poll naming it as extremely or very important, compared to 67% who said the same about the future of democracy in the U.S.
Big Number
62%. That’s the share of Americans who said they believe Biden was legitimately elected, down from 69% in December 2021, according to a December Washington Post-University of Maryland poll, indicating growing Republican loyalty to Trump.
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