The destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam is a shock. But it should not have been a surprise.
For the Russians - an army on the defensive, expecting an imminent attack, and unbothered by collateral damage - it makes plenty of sense.
For the Ukrainians, it will seriously complicate any plans to cross the Dnipro as part of the summer offensive for two reasons.
The first complication involves the dam itself.
The road that crosses the dam was the only remaining viable bridge across the Dnipro between Zaporizhzhia and the sea.
If the dam had fallen intact into Ukrainian hands, it could have been used - albeit at great risk - to supply and sustain a bridgehead in the event of a cross-river assault.
The Russians blew up a section of the road when they retreated from Kherson in November, but the gap could feasibly have been bridged by military engineers.
That is now out of the question.
The second and far more profound complication involves the river itself.
The flood unleashed from the Kakhovka reservoir will dramatically change the geography of the lower Dnipro estuary.
Above the dam, the river is - or was - literally miles across.
But downstream it narrowed to just a few hundred meters.
It was along this section that a potential amphibious assault would have been most feasible.
Such an operation would have been inherently risky. Many analysts have dismissed it out of hand as an option for the coming offensive.
Nonetheless, Ukrainian special forces had reportedly already established a presence in the marshland on the left bank opposite Kherson.
And for the past few months, intense battles have been raging for control of the low-lying islands in the delta at the mouth of the river - about 60 miles downstream from Nova Kakhovka.
Whether or not Ukraine was really planning a crossing, that made it look like one was being considered.
But those positions are now in jeopardy.
Depending on how high the river rises, the marshes and low-lying land on the left bank are likely to be flooded for miles inland. The islands may disappear altogether.
Any Ukrainian reconnaissance on the existing shoreline of the left bank, and assault plans based on it, will now be useless.
The suggestion that draining the Kakhovka reservoir above the dam could create a new potential crossing is far-fetched.
A crossing of the Dnipro always seemed unlikely. Now it seems impossible.
A third complication is political and logistical.
By forcing Kyiv to devote resources and attention to the humanitarian catastrophe of the flood, the Kremlin will hope to delay and confuse, if not halt, the coming counter-offensive.
None of this should have been unexpected.
Civilians living downstream of the dam have been aware of the danger of it being attacked for more than six months.
Volodymyr Zelensky publicly accused the Russians of planning just such an operation as early as October.
So Ukrainian commanders have probably planned for the contingency.
Nonetheless, the destruction of the dam and the flood are bad news for Ukraine.
It deprives it of a potential avenue of attack, secures the Russians’ left flank, and allows them to concentrate their defence in Zaporizhzhia, Donbas, and along the border in the north.
But it is not all good news for the Kremlin.
The collateral damage of the flood is enormous and most of it had fallen on the left bank the Russians themselves control.
They still have a very long front line to defend, and Russia’s soldiers, commanders and war bloggers are all clearly nervous about the coming assault.
By now they know that they underestimate Ukraine’s military at their peril.
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June 07, 2023 at 03:14AM
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Russian attack on Kherson dam could alter Ukraine's strategy - The Telegraph
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