I’ll tell you, this has been one hell of a series thus far. Just when you think one of these teams have the upper hand, the other comes around to foil those plans. The Braves can put this series away and will turn to Max Fried to do so. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are hoping they can get a good performance out of Walker Buehler, who has been uncharacteristically shaky with his command.
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Captain’s Picks
Max Fried ($15,900 CP) — Fried is the only starting pitcher I have interest in. He was fantastic in Game 1 of this series, allowing just one run on four hits while striking out nine in six innings. While the Dodgers have some good bats against lefties, some of their better ones simply didn’t hit lefties well during the regular season. Mookie Betts ($10,200) had just a .248 wOBA and a .018 ISO, Cody Bellinger ($8,600), who is a lefty to begin with, had a .294 wOBA and a .149 ISO. Even Justin Turner ($8,200), who was so good against lefties last year, ended with a .149 ISO. While we can’t count on Fried racking up nine strikeouts again, which was quite high for him, I think he’s able to keep these Dodgers bats at bay once again.
Freddie Freeman ($14,100 CP) — Freeman is just good, man. He’s been raking the entire playoffs, averaging 10.3 DKFP with three doubles two home runs seven RBI and seven walks. If you’re going to get a double-digit fantasy day from anyone in this game, Freeman would be one of my first choices. Freeman is also one of the most patient hitters in this series, boasting a 17.2% BB% during the regular season. As mentioned, Buehler has been very shaky with his command, having walked 11 batters in these playoffs, which span a total of 13 innings. For reference, Buehler walked a total of 37 batters through 182 1⁄3 innings last season.
Other to consider: A.J. Pollock ($10,800)
Value Plays
A.J. Pollock ($7,800) — Pollock is one of my favorite values in this game. He hits lefties so much better than he does righties and had a .468 wOBA and a .473 ISO against them during the regular season. He hasn’t had a loud postseason by any means, but his salary is low enough to take a shot with. For the amount of power he had against lefties during the regular season, Pollock is more than worth a roster spot this afternoon.
Ozzie Albies ($7,800) — Plenty of love has been written about some of the big performances from Freeman and Marcell Ozuna ($8,000), and rightfully so. Getting lost in the shuffle though has been Albies, who is averaging 8.5 DKFP in these playoffs. Of his 12 hits, four of gone for extra bases, including two home runs, two doubles and four RBI. Almost all of his power was against righties with a .244 ISO, which is not even close to the .036 ISO he had against lefties. With Buehler posting a poor 5.44 FIP against righties, Albies brings some pop and savings.
Travis d’Arnaud ($7,400) — After a red hot series against the Marlins, d’Arnaud has cooled off considerably against the Dodgers. He has just two hits in the series, both of which were singles. He is getting on base still and has drawn four walks in the series. While it’s not flashy or exciting, getting on base can lead him to scoring runs, and in these Showdowns, sometimes we’ll take any fantasy points we can get. He was one of the better hitters against righties during the regular season with a .433 wOBA and a .267 ISO.
Fades
Walker Buehler ($10,800) — As you’ve probably sensed by now, I’m going no where near Buehler in this game. I totally get it, he still struck out seven and allowed just one run on three hits in his five innings in Game 1. However, that had to be one of the uglier one run performances you could see. His five walks are a huge concern for me against a team that is not afraid to take them. It’s also been reported that Buehler is dealing with not one but two blisters currently. I’m completely fine with being wrong here if he goes out and smokes the Braves, but with his poor numbers against righties, to begin with, and his awful command, I cannot justify paying this salary.
The Outcome
According to the DraftKings Sportsbook the Dodgers are the favorites in this game. I’m going to have to disagree. A +128 Braves moneyline looks quite enticing against a starting pitcher that is getting more credit than he’s due right now. While I don’t think this game is a blowout I think the Braves handle the Dodgers and move on to their first World Series since 1999.
Final Score: Braves 6, Dodgers 3
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