Speculation of a new coup reported by Turkey’s pro-government media outlets is a tactic to hide the collapse in the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the failure of one-man rule, opposition politician Bülent Kuşoğlu said.
Discussions about a possible coup against Erdoğan surfaced this month after RAND Corporation published a report funded by the U.S. Army. The report detailed four potential trajectories Turkey’s foreign policy could take in the near future.
The report said that the purges in the Turkish military following a failed coup attempt in 2016 had adversely affected the Turkish Armed Forces’ (TSK) strategic and tactical capacity, readiness, and morale.
“Mid-level officers are reported to be extremely frustrated with the military leadership and concerned about being removed in the continuing post-coup purges,” it said. “This discontent could even lead to another coup attempt at some point, and Erdoğan appears to take the threat seriously.”
Nobody can attempt a coup against a government that firmly controls all state institutions, said Kuşoğlu, the deputy chairman of the secular main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and a member of parliament.
“This is not a government that rules the state in normal ways,” he said in an interview. “We are talking about a government that has seized all institutions of the state, including the military, the soldiers, the judiciary, the police, the intelligence agency and the media.”
The government is using columnists in pro-government media to create the image that there is a high risk of another coup, Kuşoğlu said. “Because they cannot manage anymore. It is obvious that Erdoğan’s party is in a process of rapid dissolution, a meltdown.”
Meanwhile, the government pursues a high-risk foreign policy in Syria, threatening to step up its intervention in the northwestern province of Idlib, which puts Turkish and Russia-backed Syrian forces on a collision course.
Kuşoğlu said a potential military incursion in Idlib would have dire humanitarian, economic and military risks. If Turkey seizes control of the rebel-held province, that would mean taking responsibility for some 3 million people living in Idlib.
“There is no transparency about the costs of foreign policy or military expenses,” he said. “We do not know how much is spent on Idlib and other operations. We can just see the total military expenditures in the budget and observe that it is increasing.”
At home, the government has taken steps to consolidate its powers. A new banking bill that removed existing credit limits for loans by banks to Turkey's Sovereign Wealth Fund (TVF), turned the fund to a privileged borrower. Erdoğan last week announced plans to transfer a 28 percent stake in İşbank, Turkey’s biggest listed lender, belonging to the CHP, to the Treasury. Another motion submitted to parliament seeks the transfer of development planning powers from municipalities to provincial governors, who are appointed by the central government.
The changes to regulations on lending to the TVF are an attempt to create a special treasury for the president, Kuşoğlu said.
“When this proposal came to the (parliamentary) commission, we as the opposition requested asking the opinions of bankers, the Banks Association of Turkey. As someone who has worked years in the sector, I called my friends in banking and wanted to learn their opinions, criticisms. I could not,” he said. “All banks, bankers, bank managers are in fear.”
“It is a great danger for the TVF to be handed such unrestricted, unlimited and unchecked borrowing powers,” he said.
The TVF, set up after the 2016 coup attempt, is controlled by Erdoğan, with his son-in-law, Treasury and Finance Minister Berat Albayrak, as his deputy. The fund, which controls some of the country’s biggest state-run public enterprises, including Turkish Airlines, Ziraat Bank and Halkbank, is exempt from oversight by parliament or the court of accounts.
“With those (new) powers, the TVF will turn into a personal second treasury and with its unlimited, unchecked domestic and foreign borrowing, the remaining national assets, public assets will be sold out,” Kuşoğlu said.
Erdoğan revived the discussions on the CHP’s stake in İşbank after the two parties clashed over the deaths of Turkish soldiers in Syria and accused each other of connections to the banned Islamist movement of Fethullah Gülen, which the government accuses of orchestrating the failed 2016 putsch.
The CHP’s shares in İşbank were awarded to the party by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, the founder of both modern Turkey and the party.
“They very well know that no money is coming to the CHP from those shares,” Kuşoğlu said. “The profits raised from representing Atatürk’s stake are transferred first to the Treasury and from there to the Turkish Language Institution and the Turkish History Institution, according to his will.”
The move will imply a total violation of the inheritance law and will create grave consequences for the Turkish economy as it will further erode investors’ confidence in Turkey, the politician said.
“If they do this to a bank like İşbank, which is known everywhere in the world, it will do no good for the country and instead it will create grave damage, destruction. Even talking or discussing this issue is damaging for Turkey and the economy,” he said.
“Solving Turkey’s economic problems, attracting investors require first and foremost ensuring an independent judiciary, legal guarantees for wealth and assets,” Kuşoğlu said, adding that even domestic investors had been shifting their investments to foreign countries due to government’s practices.
“Even businessmen close to Erdoğan are not making investments. They only assume public works for profits if the government offers a lucrative tender, a Treasury-guaranteed business. Otherwise their wealth has been transferred abroad,” he said.
© Ahval English
The views expressed in this column are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of Ahval.
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Turkish coup speculation a tactic to consolidate Erdoğan power, opposition MP says - Ahval
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