It’s not often the Cowboys have a matchup against the Miami Dolphins. The teams last met in 2019 where Preston Williams led Miami in receiving yards, Kenyon Drake led them in rushing, and Josh Rosen was their top signal caller. Dallas beat those Dolphins of yesteryear 31-6. Much has changed in Miami and it’s safe to say the 2023 version is nothing like those Dolphins of old.
The 2023 Dolphins enter Week 16’s showdown with a 10-4 record, fighting for playoff seeding and desperate to overtake Baltimore for the top spot and the obligatory bye week that accompanies it.
The Cowboys are in a similar situation. They are duking it out with the Eagles in the NFC East and realistically have their sights on the No. 2 seed. While the upcoming NFC games hold more value, every win matters and Dallas has something to prove after their pre-holiday cluster fudge last week in Buffalo.
But with no recent matchups to pull from, what is really known about this Dolphins squad from Miami? What are their strengths and weakness, which personnel groups do they prefer, and what might the Cowboys do to get the better of them?
Dolphins’ offense (personnel and tendencies)
Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
It may come as a surprise, but the NFL’s most high-powered offense uses the NFL’s most popular personnel package less than 50 percent of the time. 11 personnel (3WR) has become the go-to personnel group for most teams today, yet the Dolphins only use it 44 percent of the time.
Under Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins resemble San Francisco in many ways. The former Kyle Shanahan disciple uses 21 (two RBs) and 12 (2 TEs) often and loves to search for mismatches in his gameplans.
With De’Von Achane back in the mix, Miami is deadly in their 21 grouping. Running it 43 percent of the time, they average +0.25 EPA/play when passing from that grouping. Yet, when they show 21 personnel, they are actually more likely to run the ball than throw.
Another thing that jumps out is the frequency in which they use the pistol formation. At a rate of 21.7% they use pistol second most in the NFL. And while they only pass from it 38.1% of the time, it’s extremely effective, averaging +0.26 EPA/play.
Dolphin’s defense (personnel and coverage preferences)
Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Defensively Miami shows a fairly light look compared to most teams. Based on player tracking, they only run a traditional 4-3-4 defense two percent of the time. Their main look is a 2-4-5 defense. Granted, this categorizes players like Bradley Chubb (6-foot-4, 275) and Andrew Van Ginkel (6-foot-4, 242-pounds) as LBs, in the same way the Cowboys call Micah Parsons a LB.
The Dolphins go-to coverage is Cover-3. They are giving up a CPOE of 4.7% and an EPA/attempt of +0.06 in this coverage. Over the course of the season, they’ve given up 1,256 passing yards here, which is more than any other coverage. Yet they’ve only allowed two touchdowns and snagged five interceptions from this look so it’s understandable why they use it the most.
Dallas struggled against Buffalo’s 2-high looks last week so there’s a good chance Miami steals a page and gives the Cowboys some extra split safety looks. They’ve used Cover-6 the second most frequently and have struggled. Their CPOE jumps to 6.8% and their EPA/attempt goes to +0.13.
While they rarely use it, Miami is much better in Cover 2 and Cover 4. Both are keeping passers below zero in CPOE and both also have negative returns in EPA/attempt – which is good for a defense.
What this means for the Cowboys
(Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
If the Dolphins do what they usually do, the Cowboys should do what they usually do. And that would serve Dallas just fine.
Dak Prescott adores single high safety coverages and the Dolphins play Cover 1 and Cover 3 more often than not. The question is will Miami stick with their nature and oblige or will they mix in more cover-2, 4, 6? pic.twitter.com/57suftcP44
— Reid D Hanson (@ReidDHanson) December 22, 2023
Dak Prescott love single high safety looks so when defenses play Cover-1 or Cover-3, he feasts. His CPOE and EPA/attempt are among the best in the NFL against these coverages and his TD/INT ratio of 17/3 is through the roof. As long as he has time to throw (averages +2.61 TTT against these coverages) he can carve up a secondary.
Prescott is also strong against Cover-6, putting up a positive EPA and positive CPOE as well. It’s the Cover-4 and Cover -2 in which he struggles. Prescott still averages a positive EPA against both looks but his CPOE sits at a flat 0.0 against Cover-4 and is at -2.2% against Cover-2. He also stands in the pocket considerably longer against these split safety looks, opening himself up to punishment.
Just because Prescott struggled against the Bills coverage last week doesn’t mean he’s going to do the same if the Dolphins show him the same split safety looks in Week 16. Last Sunday was a particularly poor day for many Cowboys and Prescott was no exception.
Given the uncertain status of the Cowboys offensive line, pass protection may be an issue. Building a gameplan that emphasizes quick passes and limited time in the pocket is important.
It should be noted, Prescott wasn’t great against Cover-3 in Buffalo either. While his CPOE was at a 7.5%, his EPA/attempt was -0.14. Additionally, all four of Prescott’s turnover-worthy passes came without pressure. He simply threw into coverage. This is uncharacteristic of No. 4 and a repeat performance shouldn’t be expected.
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