Vindication for Gareth Southgate at last. Those questioning the England manager's building one of Euro 2020's most passive sides from a squad bursting with creative talent must surely retract their criticism after Germany were defeated by the Three Lions in the knockout round of a major tournament for the first time since 1966.
And yet it is never quite that simple. What if Thomas Muller had punished John Stones for the one critical blemish in a largely outstanding performance? Imagine if Jordan Pickford had not been quite quick enough to Kai Havertz's snap shot in the second half or the ball had rolled through his legs from Timo Werner's shot in the first.
The margins were extremely fine at Wembley Stadium. In the end England finished good chances that Germany did not. But they did not stamp their mark on this contest. Can they? Should they?
If the experiences of France and Portugal have offered any lesson from Euro 2020 it is that simply bidding to keep it tight at the back and trust your forwards to figure it out at the other end is no guarantor of success. Injuries might discombobulate your rearguard as they did Didier Deschamps' or a wonder goal might expose your lack of invention at the other end. Meanwhile Italy, Spain and Denmark have been rewarded for playing football that is more assertive and creative.
Southgate certainly could have followed that latter blueprint. He might have kept Jack Grealish from the win over the Czech Republic, rolled out the 4-2-3-1 again and perhaps even replaced one of his midfield pivot with a more progressive option such as Jude Bellingham or Jordan Henderson. He could have given the public what it wants: a swashbuckling England that ideally contains one more attacking option than is entirely necessary, just in case.
Not for the first time in this tournament Southgate served up exactly what he was being urged to avoid. This was a cautious England side designed to mitigate what Germany could do well, to keep the game slow and fiddly in the belief that if it came down to who converted their chances it was more likely to be Raheem Sterling and Harry Kane than Timo Werner and Kai Havertz.
Ultimately what matters more than the system is how effectively it is implemented. England certainly could be a freewheeling, positionally fluid and continually front-footed team, though it is fair to question whether Southgate could ever have the time on the training field to drill such interplay into his team. Instead they carry out their more disciplined, reactive and at times tedious tactics to a tee.
Germany have been one of the tournament's more gung-ho sides, one that is not afraid to throw its entire front three, the wing backs and perhaps one of the two central midfielders into the box in pursuit of goals. Before today's game they averaged 1.7 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes. According to Caley Graphics, England knocked that down by around a quarter, much of which came after Sterling's opener.
Southgate cannot eradicate risk -- there might always be a moment where Stones gets his angles wrong and Muller is away -- but he can and did do a great deal to mitigate it. On half a dozen occasions it looked like a through ball behind the back three might be about to cause England a headache but Kyle Walker was on hand to tidy up. Meanwhile Robin Gosens, tormentor of Portugal, was tied up by Kieran Trippier so effectively that the yellow card he received in the 72nd minute was an almighty jolt to the system. Surely Joachim Low had taken him off ages ago?
Germany's great attacking weapon had been their wing backs, at Wembley they were largely ineffective. Once the relatively swift adjustments were made that would stop Leon Goretzka simply running through the entire England team there did not seem to be much Low's team could do to prise this backline apart.
As Toni Kroos acknowledged: "It was difficult for our attackers to make something work with the long balls we sent forward. Our diagonal passes didn't work out either, so we couldn't hurt England as much as we wanted to." That is perhaps no surprise when Southgate had placed robust defenders such as Trippier and Luke Shaw on the flanks, with Harry Maguire in particular more than ready to meet them with that thundering forehead of his.
It is rather becoming the tale of the tournament that Southgate is getting his adjustments right. Trippier had already quelled one team's perceived threat down the England right, taking Ivan Perisic out of the win against Croatia. The introduction of Bukayo Saka against the Czech Republic seemed tailor made to give Jan Boril flashbacks to his 90 minutes in the torture chamber when these two met in Arsenal and Slavia Prague shirts.
Equally there is a real trust in those regulars in key positions. Declan Rice spent 80 minutes on a yellow card, his midfield partner Kalvin Phillips the entirety of the second half. It would only have taken one mistake, Southgate simply had faith that neither would make one. That was vindicated, Rice in particular grew into one of the second half's dominant forces, ably quelling pressure on the German right flank from Joshua Kimmich and Kai Havertz.
Only with Harry Kane's struggles does Southgate's faith feel like it is in danger of not being repaid. He may have his goal but the issue in this tournament does not seem to be his confidence rather that he is heavy legged and out of sync with his teammates. Playing it tight and relying on the Golden Boot winner to outfinish opponents is all well and good when you are getting prime Tottenham Kane. Right now he is a bizarro version of himself, the heavy touch he took with his left foot when one-on-one with Manuel Neuer a sign of real hesitance in front of goal.
The run back to Wembley could pose different tests that are no easier for this team to negotiate. Of the four possible opponents that stand between them and a first European Championships final only one -- Kasper Hjullmand's outstanding Denmark -- will look to play in a manner even remotely as expansive as Germany. Others will challenge England to take the game to them. The draw against Scotland and a clunky second half against the Czech Republic suggest that Southgate has not been able to drill the same creativity into his team as they have discipline and organization.
Opponents will play the same game as England did today: keep it tight, squeeze the spaces in which the attacking superstars look to operate and hope that you take your chances. They will do well to put that gameplan into action as effectively as Southgate's side did today and if they don't Sterling and company stand ready to punish them.
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England-Germany: How Gareth Southgate got Euro 2020 tactics right, even if they aren't what fans want - CBSSports.com
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