Covid 19 coronavirus: Fears Sweden's controversial tactic has backfired - New Zealand Herald

From the start of the Covid-19 pandemic there has been one strategy of suppressing the virus that has proved more controversial than any other tactic: herd immunity.

Despite tough criticism from experts and governments around the world, Sweden chose to go down this path in order to avoid locking down the economy.

The controversial approach meant coronavirus cases and deaths in the country initially skyrocketed but by July the daily figures had dropped dramatically, with the country successfully keeping infections and deaths low for months.

By mid-July deaths were in the single figures, with the whole country faring even better than Victoria.

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There were multiple days in August when Sweden was recording case numbers in the double digits, but numbers jumped a few weeks into September, with authorities struggling to understand why.

Daily case numbers have remained worryingly high ever since, with more than 1700 new cases recorded in the past week.

The country's capital of Stockholm appears to be the epicentre of the spike in infections with health authorities revealing on Tuesday the city had recorded more than 1200 new cases in just a few days.

Stockholm health chief Bjorn Eriksson said the "downwards trend is broken", warning people not to act as if the virus was no longer in the community.

"The pandemic is still ongoing, and I am pretty exasperated by people who act as if this is over," he said on Tuesday.

"Everyone needs to help in reducing transmission."

Swedish authorities have continually pushed back against introducing mandatory lockdown or restrictions, choosing to keep schools, retailers and restaurants open throughout the whole pandemic.

Wearing a mask is also optional for residents.

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But now authorities are considering bringing in restrictions to deal with this unexpected surge in cases.

State epidemiologist at the Public Health Agency of Sweden, Anders Tegnell. Photo / Getty Images

"Stockholm has seen a clear increase recently, across all age groups," Sweden's state epidemiologist Dr Anders Tegnell, who has headed the country's response, told reporters.

"We are discussing with Stockholm whether we need some additional possibility to take measures to reduce transmission."

Tegnell said experts were now finalising what restrictions may need to be put in place.

"We have a discussion with Stockholm about whether we need to introduce measures to reduce the spread of infection," he said.

"Exactly what that will be, we will come back to in the next few days."

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Sweden has recorded more than 90,000 Covid-19 cases and 5878 deaths, with almost half the fatalities occurring in Stockholm.

Just a few days ago there was suggestions from some health experts that Sweden may have successfully reached herd immunity and beaten the virus.

Professor of biocomplexity at Niels Bohr Institute in Copenhagen, Kim Sneppen, said the partial immunity already built could be enough to contain the spread.

"There is some evidence that the Swedes have built up a degree of immunity to the virus which, along with what else they are doing to stop the spread, is enough to control the disease," Sneppen told Danish newspaper Politiken.

Before Sweden saw its most recent surge in cases, another health expert said the drop in cases and deaths was a "vindication" of the country's herd immunity strategy.

However, a study published in August found Sweden had actually "failed" in its bid to achieve herd immunity.

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Swedish health authorities initially predicted that 40 per cent of the Stockholm population would have contracted the disease and acquired antibodies by May this year.

But the study, published by the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, found by that time only about 15 per cent of the population had been infected.

In conjunction with this, research has shown that asymptomatic people or those with a mild infection are much less likely to develop lasting antibodies.

"It is clear that not only are the rates of viral infection, hospitalisation and mortality [per million population] much higher than those seen in neighbouring Scandinavian countries, but also that the time-course of the epidemic in Sweden is different, with continued persistence of higher infection and mortality well beyond the few critical weeks period seen in Denmark, Finland and Norway," said researcher Dr David Goldsmith, a retired physician in London.

Former epidemiologist, David Steadson, said he was "disgusted" by Sweden's approach to the pandemic.

Steadson, an Australian man who currently lives two hours from Stockholm, spoke with news.com.au two weeks ago about the Government's decision to try and achieve herd immunity.

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"Allowing a deadly virus to just spread in the hope of eventual 'herd immunity' made no sense to me scientifically, given our then limited knowledge, and it absolutely made no sense to me ethically," he said.

"People would die unnecessarily and I was frankly disgusted with what I was hearing from the Swedish Public Health Authority."

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Covid 19 coronavirus: Fears Sweden's controversial tactic has backfired - New Zealand Herald
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